Dinamika putničke potražnje i transportnog rada u hrvatskom javnom cestovnom putničkom prometu

master's thesis

• Title (english): Dynamics of Passenger Demand and Transport Work in Croatian Public Road Traffic System
• Author: Tomislav Kukec
• Mentor: Marijan Rajsman (mentor)
• Committee member: Mihaela Bukljaš Skočibušić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Veselko Protega (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Dubravka Hozjan (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences; (Division of Transport); (Department of Road Transport); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2016-09-27, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Traffic and Transport Technology; Road and Rail Transport

Abstract

Putnička potražnja i transportni rad osnovni su kvantitativni pokazatelji ostvarenih učinaka u sektoru javnog cestovnog prijevoza putnika. Da bi se mogla predvidjeti daljnja kretanja ovih dviju osobito važnih veličina, važno je shvatiti odnose u cjelokupnom prometnom sustavu i međuodnose između ovih dviju veličina i cjelokupnog gospodarskog sustava. Cilj ovog rada bio je utvrditi dosadašnja kretanja ovih dviju veličina u petnaestogodišnjem razdoblju od 2000. do 2014., te na temelju njih izraditi prognostički trend model za buduće razdoblje, na temelju kojeg je moguće predvidjeti daljnja kretanja ovih veličina. Na taj se način, ukoliko se dođe do jasnih prognoza budućeg stanja, mjerama prometne politike, kako države, tako i poduzetnika, može se utjecati na prometni sustav i razvijati ga u pozitivnom pravcu. U radu je u analizu uključen cjelokupni javni cestovni prometni sektor, što znači unutarnji transport, transport hrvatskih prijevoznika na međunarodnim linijama, te gradsko-prigradski transport. Za svaku od ovih veličina izračunata je aritmetička sredina, standardna devijacija, koeficijent varijabilnosti, te prosječna godišnja stopa promijene. Nadalje utvrđeni su odnosi između prometnih i gospodarskih veličina, te je cestovni prometni sustav uspoređen sa svim ostalim prometnih sustavima Republike Hrvatske. Isto tako provedena je kratka analiza ostvarenog transportnog rada u nekim zemljama iz Europske Unije i okruženja. Na temelju provedene analize za putničku potražnju predviđa se budući trend pada. Za transportni rad na temelju izrađenog trend modela i korelacija između prometnih i gospodarskih veličina ne mogu se sa sigurnošću utvrditi buduća kretanja jer model nije signifikantan. Isto tako ne postoji jasna veza između kretanja transportnog rada između Hrvatske i ostalih članice EU ili susjednih zemalja.

Abstract (english)

Dynamics of passenger demand and transport work in Croatian public road transport system are basic quantitative indicators of achieved performances in the sector of public transportation system. For predicting further movements of this very important measurements is very important to understand relations in whole traffic system and relation between this two values and an entire economic system. The main purpose was establishing previous movements this two values between 2000 and 2014, and also make prognostic trend for future purposes. Based on this trend is possible to predict further value movements. In this way, if there is a clear forecast of the future state, measures of transport policy, as state and entrepreneurs, can affect the transport system and to develop it in a positive direction The whole public road transport is working on this analysis which means interior transport, internatiol transport and urban-suburban transport. Arithmetic mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and average annual rate of change is being calculater for each of this values. Relations between transportation and economic size are establishing, and the road traffic system is compared with all other traffic systems in Croatia. Also the short analysis of previous transport work is conducted in EU and in surrounding areas. Based on this analysis is predicted the future downward trend of passenger demand. For transport work based on the created trend models and correlations between traffic and economic sizes can not be determined with certainty future movements because the model is not significant. Also there is no obvious relation between movement of transport work in Croatia and in EU or neighboring countries.

• Keywords: putnička potražnja; transportni rad; hrvatski javni cestovni prometni sustav; modeli budućeg razvitka
• Keywords (english): passenger demand; transport work; Croatian public road transport system; models of future development
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:119:356708
• Study programme: Title: Traffic and Transport; specializations in: Road Traffic and Transport, Railway Traffic and Transport, Water Traffic and Transport, Air Traffic and Transport, Postal Traffic, Information and Communication Traffic, Urban Traffic and Transport; Course: Road Traffic and Transport; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka prometa (magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka prometa)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Repository: Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences
• Created on: 2016-11-03 12:44:39