Specifičnosti konjunkturnih testova zemalja Europske Unije u recesiji

master's thesis

• Title (english): Specifics of business curveys of Europian Union in recession
• Author: Marita Kukor
• Mentor: Mirjana Čižmešija (mentor)
• Committee member: Alka Obadić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Marija Penava (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Economics and Business; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2015-09-22, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: SOCIAL SCIENCES; Economics

Abstract

Konjunkturni testovi su kvalitativna istraživanja čiji se rezultati određenim numeričkim postupcima transformiraju u pokazatelje. Pokazatelji konjunkturne klime koji su potvrđeni kao vodeći indikatori služe kao dopuna rezultatima službene statistike o kretanjima makroekonomskih varijabli te su redovito, mjesečno, kvartalno i/ili polugodišnje, dostupni širokom krugu korisnika. Kako pokazatelji konjunkture zauzimaju vrlo važno mjesto u kratkoročnim, ali i dugoročnim prognozama ekonomskih kretanja nacionalnog, regionalnog i svjetskog gospodarstva, posebno u razdoblju recesije, njihova pouzdanost i relevantnost u donošenju odluka nositelja politike je ispitana primjenom statističkih modela. U tu svrhu promatrana je međusobna povezanost i ovisnost varijabli promjene pokazatelja pouzdanja konjunkturne klime u industriji i stope promjene industrijske proizvodnje primjenom modela korelacijske i regresijske analize, a uspješnost prognoziranja smjera promjene analizirane pojave temeljem konfuzijskog omjera. Zaključivanje da se temeljem smjera promjene pokazatelja konjunkturne klime u industriji može uspješno predvidjeti smjer promjene obujma industrijske proizvodnje i to 7 mjeseci unaprijed, izvedeno je na temelju rezultata χ2 - testa o nezavisnosti obilježja.

Abstract (english)

Business and Consumer Surveys are qualitative surveys of which results are transformed into indicators with certain numerical procedures. Indicators, confirmed as the leading indicators, are used to supplement the results of official statistics on trends in macroeconomic variables and are available to a wide range of users monthly, quarterly and/or semi-annually. As the indicators of economic activity, they have a very important role in the short term, but also long-term forecasts of national, regional and world economic trends, especially in the recession period. Their reliability and relevance in decision-making are examined using statistical models. For this purpose, the interconnection and dependence of Industrial Confidence Indicator and industrial production change have been observed, based on the correlation and regression analysis. The success of forecasting the direction of change of analyzed phenomena is examined via confusion rate. The conclusion that the change of Industrial Confidence Indicator can successfully predict the direction of industrial production change up to seven months in advance, is based on the results of the chi-square test.

• Keywords: konjunkturni testovi; makroekonomija; Europska unija; recesija; prognostika
• Keywords (english): Business and Consumer Surveys; macroeconomics; the European Union; recession; forecasting
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:148:716408
• Study programme: Title: Economics; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Access restricted to students and staff of home institution
• Repository: REPEFZG
• Created on: 2016-10-13 12:27:11